Money
is a very strange thing–human beings make rational decisions while dealing with
most aspects of life but make serious errors of judgment when it comes to
dealing with money – be it saving, investing, borrowing or spending – and
probably none are so glaring then when it comes to investment in equities.
Completely rational investors take totally
irrational decisions when part of crowd – their own individual rational minds
come down many levels to the irrational level of the crowd. Many a times,
individual rational intelligent persons commit simple mistakes while making
investment decisions in common stocks. And market has its own method of finding
and exploiting human weaknesses.
Mehrab
Irani, General Manager – Investments with Tata Investment Corporation points out some of the most common mistakes that investors
commit while investing in common stocks.
Mistake 1: Trying to catch the top and bottom
This is one of the most common mistake while
investing in equities which most of the investors commit i.e. trying to
catch the top and the bottom, little realizing that only fools can catch the
top or the bottom.
No Government, Central Bank, company management,
fund manager, analyst or anybody knows what will be the exact top or bottom of
any stock, then how does a common investor believe that he / she will be able
to catch the top or bottom?
Instead of that, determine the value and target
price of any stock in which you intend to invest by whatever method you may
follow – fundamental, technical or any other method- and then buy it within 5%
to 10% range of your that “buy price”.
You may pace out the purchase over a period of
time keeping in mind the current performance of that company and / or the
overall market conditions.
But, once you determine the “correct price” for a
stock to buy, by whatever method you may follow, and once that price
approaches, then don’t wait to “buy at the bottom”, because you will probably
never be able to do that.
Remember that if you wait too long to buy, until
every uncertainty is removed and every doubt is lifted at the bottom of a
market cycle, you may keep waiting and waiting. The same rule will apply while
selling also.
Mistake 2:
It will come back
This is another common mistake which most of the
investors commit while investing in equities – whether on the buying or selling
side.
If they see a certain price for a certain stock
and they miss buying / selling at that price, then they keep waiting in
anticipation that the same price will come back, irrespective of market or
individual stock considerations.
For example, somebody might have decided on
whatever kind of analysis he / she might have done that Unitech is to be sold.
Then he / she saw the price of Rs.530 in January 2008
but “missed” selling at that price; and after that the stock started falling
because of general market weakness and fundamental deterioration in the company.
But, the investor, who is influenced by this
common mistake and waiting for the “price to come back”, might still be waiting
with the current price around Rs.26, irrespective of
the fact that the price ofRs.530 stands the
chance of not ever coming back!
The lesson to be learned is that if the price of
the stock has gone up / down for a change in the prospects of that company or
sector, then there is no point being in illusion that the “price will come
back”.
Mistake 3: Already fallen so much – can’t fall further
This is one another serious mistake which many
investors commit while investing in equities. A stock might have fallen
“considerably” and hence they believe that now it cannot fall further.
Nothing can be further from truth as this is one
of the grave mistakes which results in multiplication of investor losses.
Continuing with the Unitech example, the stock
fell from Rs.530 in January 2008
to Rs.240 by March 2008,
a massive fall of 45% in just two months. Now, any investor who might have
believed that it can’t fall further because it has fallen 45% in 2 months and
hence held on to it / purchased it was in for a rude shock as it fell to Rs.20 by December
2008, a massive 96% from the top and also a substantial fall of 92% from the
March 2008 level of Rs.240.
Unless the stock becomes attractive on a
standalone basis on fundamental or technical or whatever analysis you may
believe in, there is simply no logic in believing that “because it has already
fallen so much and therefore it can’t fall further”.
Mistake 4: Already risen so much – can’t rise further
This is the corollary of mistake number 3 – many
times investors believe that since the stock has risen so much, hence it cannot
rise further. For example, Titan rose from around Rs.5 in July 2004 toRs.42 by March 2006,
stupendous jump of more than 8 times in less than 2 years.
Anybody, thinking that the stock has risen so much
and therefore cant rise further and sold it was for a rude surprise as the
stock rose to Rs.237 by September
2011, not only swelling by 47 times from its July 2004 price of Rs.5, but also multiplying
by around 5.5 times from its march 2006 level of Rs.42.
Hence, unless the stock becomes expensive on
valuation basis / future growth expectation basis or any other “price
determination” parameter which you might be successfully applying, simply
because the stock has risen so much does not warrant a sufficient reason to
sell.
Mistake 5: Protect your profits or cut your losses
Many readers might not agree with me on this
point. Unless you are a short term trader or investing on costly leveraged
funds, there is no point in simply trying to “protect the profits” or “cut
losses”.
Unless the stock becomes costly on valuation basis
or its fundamentals deteriorate on a long term basis or because of some other
“price determination” parameter which you might be using, just because a stock
on which you are making money corrects, it does not necessitate you to panic
and sell out of it to “protect your profits”.
Let’s continue with the above example of Titan.
After multiplying by about 8 times from Rs.5 in July 2004 to Rs.42 in March 2006,
the stock corrected to Rs.21 by May 2006,
almost halved from its peak of March 2006 in just two months. Any investor who
might have panicked and sold the stock then would be in for a nasty surprise as
the stock then went on to Rs.85 by December 2007
i.e. 4 times jump from the May 2006 low and beyond that as we now know it has
touched Rs.237 by September
2011.
The same principle would apply for cutting losses
as you might be cutting your losses just before the stock is on the verge of
embarking on its dream run.
Keeping with the Titan example above, suppose you
purchased the stock at Rs.42 in March 2006
and it halved to Rs.21 in the
subsequent two months and you are nursing a massive 50% loss. On the fallacy of
“cutting your losses” if you sell the stock at Rs.21 then you have
sold it just before it was getting ready for its next dream run which would
lead to many times price multiplication over the next few years.
Hence, remember that after doing your analysis if
you feel that the price is right for selling than only sell the stock and not
on the misleading notion of protecting your profits because in fact by doing
that you might be cutting any probability of serious wealth creation in the
future. The same would apply to “cut your losses” fallacy also.
Mistake 6: Price Averaging
This is another grave mistake which investors do
which takes them deeper and deeper down the loss lane. There is a wrong notion
then averaging brings down the purchase cost and hence would be able to sell it
at some marginal profit or at least closer to cost price.
Let us move back to the example of Unitech,
suppose you invested in 1 share at Rs.530 in January
2008, then “averaged” by buying one more share at Rs.300 in February
2008 and further averaged by purchasing another one share at Rs.240 in March 2008
so that now your reduced “average cost” is Rs.357.
But, what purpose has that served? Today the stock
is quoting around Rs.26, down by a
phenomenal 93% from the reduced “averaged cost”. An investor can sometimes get
an opportunity to exit in the averaged stock at close to the “average cost”;
but those opportunities are rare and only for a short period of time and
therefore very difficult to capitalize at that point of time.
And finally, if you would not otherwise want to
buy a particular stock at a particular price then what is the logic for
averaging it if you already own your stock?
Remember; never throw good money after bad money.
If you have made a mistake in selecting a wrong
stock, humbly accept your mistake, sell it and book your loss and move ahead, -
utilize the proceeds from sale to buy better investments with potential of
price appreciation in future.
Mistake 7: Stocks gone up so I am right or gone down so I
am wrong – The Market Trap
Ego and lack of self-confidence are both negative
qualities of a human being and an investor. If you buy a stock and it goes up
for no real reason but for market abnormalities, then be smart enough to sell
it and get out of it instead of pampering your ego that you are an astute
investor or a great stock picker.
Don’t forget that the market is a great deflator
of all egos. The same can be true when you might have invested in a stock at a
decent price after all your analysis and the stock falls for no deterioration
in the company’s performance but for some uncontrollable market reasons –
during that point of time there is no need to panic and loose self-confidence
and start believing that you are wrong.
Remember, the market can be wrong and is in fact
wrong most of the times; so try to take advantage of it abnormalities by using
your knowledge, experience and judgment instead of getting swayed away by it
and losing your self-confidence.
Mistake 8: Efficient Market Theory
Don’t blindly believe in the efficient market
theory – in fact, remember that market is inefficient for almost 95% of the
time. It is like a pendulum moving from over valuation to under valuation and
then vice versa. And just like a pendulum’s movement from one side (over
valuation) to the other side (under valuation), it passes through the middle
(fair valuation) on by chance.
And if the market was indeed always efficient it
would simply be impossible for so many investment gurus and fund managers to
“claim that they can beat the market”.
Having said that, over the long term the pendulum
does move in the direction of what is right – if the country, economy, sector
and the individual stock does perform well than over the longer term the
pendulum does put its weight behind it, otherwise not.
Mistake 9: Blindly follow the Guru
There is a saying that either you completely trust
your judgment, or that of another person; and usually, the other person in the
market is the investment guru or fund managers etc.
Kindly note, that you may trust any investment
guru of your choice and some investor gurus will beat the market at certain
points of time but all the investor gurus cannot in totality beat the whole
market on a continuous basis because they only make up the market.
Simply put, everybody can’t beat everybody – for
there to be a winner, there has to be a looser also. And kindly note, the buyer
and seller are always on the opposite side of the trade and they both
mysteriously believe that they are right – but one of them is in fact wrong!
So don’t trust any of the so called Investment
gurus as face value (including myself although I don’t claim to be any
investment guru but just a student of investing).
Mistake 10: Penny Stocks
This is another common mistake which most of the
investors commit – buying into penny stocks thinking that the price is already
“so low”, most probably in single digit, little realizing their own thinking
folly.
The amount of loss which can happen in common
stock investing is reported in percentage terms and measured in rupee terms,
whether it be a penny stock of Re.1 or a high priced stock ofRs.1000. Therefore, if
a Re.1 stock falls to 10 paise or a Rs.1000 stock falls to Rs.100, the loss is
90% in both cases. And most importantly, if you invest say Rs.1000 in either of
the above mentioned two stocks and both of them suppose become zero, then you
lose your full investment of Rs.1000, irrespective
of the initial price of the stock.
So, remember the old saying “penny wise, pound
foolish”, the stock price is just a quote in the market and on its own does not
have any significance whatsoever, it has to be measured in conjunction with the
company’s performance, earnings, book value, dividends etc – a high priced
stock may actually be cheap on valuation basis, while a low priced penny stock
may actually be very costly if the underlying business does not support even
that much of a price.
Mistake 11: Fail to past the test of patience and character
Market is a place which will test your patience
and character. Many times you might have bought a stock for all the right
reasons at the right price but the stock refuses to go up for a long period of
time.
Just hang on to it because the day you get
frustrated and sell it off, there are chances the stock will then start rising.
Hence, patience and character are key virtues
which will be repeatedly tested by the market.
To conclude, there are many simple and avoidable
mistakes which investors commit while investing in common stocks and I have
tried to explain some of the most common ones of them.
Kindly note that simple logical things work far
better in the market place rather than complex algorithms, theorems, valuations
principles, DCF etc. And there is no other place to test your virtues than the
market – be it common sense, logical thinking, patience, perseverance, mental
balance, emotional intelligence, performing under stress etc. All the qualities
which make a successful human being will be tested by the market –it has its
own method of finding and exploiting human weaknesses. Investing is not about
beating the market or anybody else, its simply beating your own self, your own
negative traits and once you are able to master your own self and become a
complete human being, then only you would also become a successful investor.
Avoid the common mistakes while investing in
common stocks and embark on becoming a successful investor and a complete human
being. All the very best.
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